Can Exhausted Ukrainian Territorials Save Huliaipole?
The town anchors Ukrainian defenses in eastern Zaporizhzhia. But there aren’t enough troops to hold it.
Outnumbered Ukrainian territorials are falling back in Huliaipole as a Russian division advances
Huliaipole anchors Ukrainian defenses in the southeast, but possibly not for long
Russian infantry are contesting outlying districts and crossing the river in the middle of the town
Russian troops are marching into Huliaipole as the Russians press their manpower advantage, trading thousands of lives for slow but steady gains across eastern and southeastern Ukraine.
Without an influx of fresh troops, Ukrainian forces may continue to fall back, eventually exposing major cities in the east (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk) and south (Zaporizhzhia) to Russian bombardment and, in the worst-case scenario, ground assault.
Huliaipole anchors Ukrainian defenses in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The town was secure until a powerful Russian force led by the 127th Motor Rifle Division exploited gaps in Ukrainian defenses and advanced swiftly across the open terrain and advanced all the way to Huliaipole’s outskirts earlier this month.
The battered, demoralized Ukrainian 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade garrisons the town with the help of the elite 225th Assault Regiment, which hurried toward the town last month in part to prevent the out-gunned, out-numbered 102nd Territorial Brigade from total collapse.
There were event reports the 225th Assault Regiment opened fire to prevent the territorials from retreating. The Ukrainian defense consolidated in Huliaipole itself. But infantry-starved Ukrainian units are no longer capable of reliably defending urban settlements from infantry-rich Russian regiments with a five-to-one manpower advantage.
Ukrainian forces deploy drones to compensate for infantry shortages, but built-up areas with their abandoned buildings and deep basements protect the attackers from the drones. Once a few Russians are lodged inside a town or city, more Russians are bound to follow. Ukrainian infantry assaults could dislodge them, if the infantry were available. Drone attacks can’t dislodge them.
Yes, the Russians’ slow-but-steady urban assault tactics are costly: the Russians lose several times as many troops as the Ukrainians do. But they work for a military that’s still mobilizing more people every month than it’s burying.
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