European Air Power Is Fragile

Images of French and British fighters using high-tech air-to-air missiles to destroy Iranian attack drones may give the appearance of strength, but betray a serious weakness

German air force photo

The European defensive campaign over the Middle East has underlined the fragility of its air forces, which are organized around small fleets of expensive manned fighters armed with small numbers of expensive precision-guided munitions. There’s a lot of capability but not a lot of capacity.

Stripped of conventional forces by U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran is increasingly fighting the war with inexpensive rockets, drones, and mines. These may lack the precision of Western weapons, but can be used at scale.

Even under relentless air attack, Iran has managed to launch scores of Shahed one-way attack drones at targets across the Middle East. A 200kg (440 lb.) Shahed can fly more than 1,000 km to deliver a 50-kg warhead, yet costs as little as $50,000.

In contrast, a $100m Typhoon fighter’s AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles cost $1m apiece, and its AIM-132 short-range air-to-air missiles $250,000 each. Even if a Typhoon engages Shaheds with its gun, the cost disparity is striking. It costs more than the price of a single Shahed just to fuel up a Eurofighter Typhoon for a three-hour defensive air patrol and maintain it after it lands.

The high cost of European warplanes and munitions weighs on stockpiles. By favoring capability over capacity for both aircraft and munitions, the continent’s air forces have steadily shrunk in recent decades along with their munitions inventories.

Iran’s concentration on volume means it should be able to continue drone attacks far longer than France and the U.K., and can sustain its aerial defense against them. Even the US and Israel, with their much bigger air forces and munitions stocks, risk losing a long war of aerial attrition.

Europe must pivot to affordable air defenses, and fast. It’s a lesson Ukraine learned the hard way as Moscow scaled up its deployment of drones, including the Iranian-designed Shaheds, some of which are now built in Russia.

Read the rest at Europe’s Edge.