Even If Ukraine's Explosive Drone Sub Missed, It May Have Badly Damaged That Russian Sub
Near misses tend to damage a sub's internal systems
A Ukrainian drone submarine hit, or hit near, a Russian navy submarine in southern Russia on Monday
Even a near miss can badly damage a submarine, especially its internal components
Even if the sub’s hull is intact following the Monday raid, internal damage could keep it out of action for months or even years
The Ukrainian state security service, the vaunted SBU, maneuvered an explosive drone submarine past underwater defenses in the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea in southern Russia on Monday and struck, or nearly struck, a Russian navy Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class attack submarine moored pierside.
But getting hit may be almost as bad as getting sunk. Türkiye closed the Bosphorus to Russian warships in 2022. The fleet’s only real submarine repair yard, in Sevastopol, has been under Ukrainian missile attack for two years. Novorossiysk has docks, but not the equipment for major submarine work. A Varshavyanka that can’t dive, can’t sail and can’t be fixed … isn’t coming back.
It’s unclear whether the Sub Sea Baby drone directly hit the steel hull of the 242-foot Varshavyanka, one of three left in the Black Sea Fleet after Ukrainian missiles blew up a fourth boat, the Rostov-na-Donu, in occupied Crimea—first in September 2023, then again in June 2024 before it finally sank in August 2024.
A video from Novorossiysk confirms the drone at the very least exploded right next to the Varshavyanka. Perhaps just a few meters aft of the diesel-electric boat’s stern.
That’s probably close enough to cause significant damage ... and keep the Varshavyanka out of action for months if not years.
The Black Sea Fleet deploys its Varshavyankas for Kalibr missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Every Varshavyanka the Ukrainians destroy or badly damage is one fewer Varshavyanka that can terrorize Ukrainian civilians. There are just eight or nine ships in the Black Sea Fleet that can launch Kalibrs.
Submarines are built tough out of high-quality steel. They have to be to survive the enormous pressure that seawater exerts at depths of potentially hundreds of meters. But that doesn’t mean a nearby explosion—from a drone, torpedo or mine—won’t badly damage a sub’s hull or internal systems.
“The most probable threat does not involve direct contact of a ship with a mine, but has the mine exploding in the vicinity of the ship, launching a high-pressure wave into the liquid,” the Massachusetts-based Mitre Corporation explained in a 2007 study.
“During World War II, it was discovered that although such ‘near miss’ explosions do not cause serious hull or superstructure damage, the vibrations associated with the blast nonetheless incapacitated the ship, by knocking out critical components,” Mitre continued.
Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.
