Holding Out: Japan Rearms Impressively, But Taiwan Can’t Count On It

Tokyo would look to Washington to take the lead

Type 12 anti-ship missile. Japan Self-Defense Forces photo

Japan is re-arming powerfully—but Taiwan can’t rely on its help. The island must prepare to hold out alone against a Chinese attempt at subjugating it, at least until international help can be marshaled.

Reinforcement of the Japanese military includes powerful warships, sophisticated air defenses and new missiles capable of sinking ships and striking air and missile bases, headquarters and supply lines deep inside enemy territory.

Viewed from Taiwan, that looks like a suite of high-tech weaponry that could help save the island in the event of attempted subjugation by China, whether using invasion or blockade. The problem is that Japan may not race to Taiwan’s defense. Tokyo is acquiring all those new ships and missiles for the defense of Japan, which doesn’t necessarily mean also defending Taiwan.

If the U.S. wouldn’t or couldn’t come to Taiwan’s aid, Japan wouldn’t either. Nor, most likely, would Australia, the Philippines or any other country. Yes, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that a Chinese armed attempt to seize Taiwan could be an example of ‘survival-threatening situations’ for Japan – those that allow the country to engage in collective self-defense with U.S. But Taipei still should prepare for the worst or at least prepare to hold out for as long as it can.

Fighting alone, Taiwanese forces could blunt a Chinese attack and delay defeat, buying time for diplomacy that might belatedly draw reluctant allies into the war. The U.S. would have to come first. Japan might follow. So might others.

Read the rest at The Strategist.