Holding Out: Taiwan’s Priority Preparations In Case Of Chinese Blockade

It's time to stockpile munitions and fuel

Image of cargo ships in Kaohsiung, Taiwan: Johnson Hung/Unsplash

Taiwan isn’t Ukraine. Russia’s victim has withstood almost four years of war, but it has advantages in perseverance that Taiwan lacks.

Taiwan needs its own ways of holding out against China, particularly against a Chinese blockade. Addressing this issue is becoming urgent as Pres. Donald Trump shows an alarming lack of enthusiasm for preserving the island’s independence.

Among Taiwan’s priorities are stocking supplies and preparing its people psychologically for hardship.

To understand Taiwan’s challenges, first consider the differences between its circumstances and Ukraine’s.

Ukraine has borders with seven other countries, through some of which it can get overland supply. But Taiwan is an island.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 square kilometers; in combat, it can trade space for time. Taiwan’s is just 36,000 square kilometers; it has little space to trade.

Ukraine grew more than enough of its own food before the Russian invasion. Even in peacetime, Taiwan needs imports.

And Ukraine is receiving strong material support from the United States and European countries to the west. But Trump told The New York Times on Jan. 8 that what China did with Taiwan was “up to” Pres. Xi Jinping, though he added that he’d be “very unhappy” with a change in the status quo.

Taiwan should be prepared to fight alone or with only limited help from Japan and Australia and possibly The Philippines.

Even if Taiwan can defeat an immediate amphibious assault, an island that cannot quickly produce large quantities of munitions and, most importantly, cannot feed itself or independently power its electricity grid is at the mercy of a rapidly ticking clock. It could lose its independence as Chinese forces blockaded it by sea and air, slowly but inexorably starving it of ammunition, food, fuel and willpower.

The longer it can hold out, the greater its chances of eventually getting help from external forces, maybe including a U.S. showing renewed interest. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would have immediate and horrific consequences for countless Taiwanese, but it might take time for the scale and severity of those consequences to register around the world.

To improve Taiwan’s chances, the government of Pres. Lai Ching-te should prioritize:

• Doubling down on efforts to stock ammunition, food, fuel, spare parts for the power grid and supplies for other essential services, all while building up domestic production capacity to reduce dependence on imports;

• Reversing a policy to phase out nuclear electricity generation and instead expand nuclear power while decentralizing the grid with even more sources of renewable generation;

• Crafting a strategy for widespread blockade running; and

• Commencing a publicity campaign to steel everyday Taiwanese against the hardships that a Chinese blockade would bring.

Read the rest at The Strategist.