It's been a consistent problem. Some 'authoritative' voices like the IISS and 'The Economist' appear to accept Russian government claims at face value. These get lots of publicity. Others like Sweden's FOI are less credulous, dig deeper and discover, as usual, Russian claims are not worth the paper they are written on. They, of course, get much less publicity. 'The Economist' even took the Kremlin's plan to build two new tank factories (a multiple year, if not decades long project) and assumed they were already in operation. You can't make this stuff up. Unless, of course, you are Russia and have some gullible analysts and journalists on hand.
In contrast, early this year, the Polish news outlet, 'Defence24', got hold of Uralvagonzavod's 2024 production figures. It reports 60-80 T-90M, a handful of BMP4 Terminators, and around 200 refurbished T-72Bs.
In summary, Russia is passing off tanks either pulled out of storage and renovated or withdrawn from the frontline and then modernised as new tanks. An OSINT researcher, Jompy, who monitors satellite images of Russia's vehicle storage sites recently concluded:
"It would appear whatever stock of T-72Bs held [by] UVZ at their own facilities, is now exhausted, as the Russians have restarted [taking] T-72Bs stored at the 1311th base to be refurbished at that factory. The stock probably won't last long, I estimate they pull ~20 per month..."
"By now it's likely there are no stored T-80s left at all."
Unfortunately a situation when so many potential sources have an incentive to lie, distort, or mislead and reporters can show up at the factories or stay on the front lines to assess the actual facts.
That’s kind of a shocking difference in estimates.
Sure is. Big mystery.
It's been a consistent problem. Some 'authoritative' voices like the IISS and 'The Economist' appear to accept Russian government claims at face value. These get lots of publicity. Others like Sweden's FOI are less credulous, dig deeper and discover, as usual, Russian claims are not worth the paper they are written on. They, of course, get much less publicity. 'The Economist' even took the Kremlin's plan to build two new tank factories (a multiple year, if not decades long project) and assumed they were already in operation. You can't make this stuff up. Unless, of course, you are Russia and have some gullible analysts and journalists on hand.
In contrast, early this year, the Polish news outlet, 'Defence24', got hold of Uralvagonzavod's 2024 production figures. It reports 60-80 T-90M, a handful of BMP4 Terminators, and around 200 refurbished T-72Bs.
(https://defence24.pl/przemysl/ile-nowych-czolgow-otrzymala-rosja)
In summary, Russia is passing off tanks either pulled out of storage and renovated or withdrawn from the frontline and then modernised as new tanks. An OSINT researcher, Jompy, who monitors satellite images of Russia's vehicle storage sites recently concluded:
"It would appear whatever stock of T-72Bs held [by] UVZ at their own facilities, is now exhausted, as the Russians have restarted [taking] T-72Bs stored at the 1311th base to be refurbished at that factory. The stock probably won't last long, I estimate they pull ~20 per month..."
"By now it's likely there are no stored T-80s left at all."
(https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1948420839562707415.html)
Once all the T-80s, and T-72Bs are gone, Russia only has truly archaic T-72As, T-62s, and T-55s.
Unfortunately a situation when so many potential sources have an incentive to lie, distort, or mislead and reporters can show up at the factories or stay on the front lines to assess the actual facts.