Is The Ukrainian Counteroffensive A Lie?
Difference observers reach different conclusions.
Ukrainian forces are advancing in southeastern Ukraine, first clearing out Russian infiltrators from the wide no-man’s-land and then pushing back the Russians from settlements they once fully controlled.
The main objective of this Ukrainian counteroffensive is the town Uspenivka, the main base for the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army, which is pointed like a spear at the free city of Zaporizhzhia, 50 miles to the west.
Or …
Ukrainian forces are merely creating the impression of a counteroffensive in the southeast by slightly repositioning troops who were always entrenched in the no-man’s-land, a.k.a. the “gray zone.” The Russians remain fully in control of almost all of the settlements they controlled when their own offensive in the area slowed around the New Year.
The separate and wildly different assessments of the fighting along the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts both come from reliable analysts and mappers. Who’s right depends a lot on how you define your terms. What is the “gray zone”? What counts as an “advance”? What counts as “control”?
Maybe the Ukrainians really are on the offensive—and really are gaining ground. Or maybe it’s all smoke and mirrors and sloppy verbiage.
