Once Ukrainian Ballistic Missiles Start Raining Down, Russia Will Have To Make A Hard Choice

Bombard Kyiv or protect Moscow?

Ballistic strikes on Kyiv

It’s possible Ukrainian forces launched a new type of ballistic missile at Moscow on July 1. The apparent Ukrainian missile, which air defenses reportedly shot down over the Russian capital, is a harbinger of things to come.

Ukraine is developing several new ballistic missiles with the range to reach Moscow, 500 km from the border with Ukraine. If and when they begin raining down on Russian cities, gas facilities, factories and refineries, Russia may have to change the way it fights.

The Russians might have to aim their best S-400 air defense batteries into the sky, instead of aiming them at the ground. For Ukraine, that could mean some respite from relentless Russian missile strikes. After all, S-400s doubling as surface-to-surface munitions are in the mix most nights when Russia bombards Ukraine.

“Ballistic missiles force a different problem on Russia,” wrote Michael Bohnert, an analyst for California think tank RAND.

The coming shift comes down to speed. Where one-way attack drones and many cruise missiles are slow—often motoring along at just a few hundred kilometers an hour—and are thus fairly easy to shoot down, ballistic missiles are fast.

The same air defenses that swat down incoming drones can’t stop ballistic missiles. Only the best air defenses stand any chance of hitting an incoming ballistic missile. Ukraine’s main defense against Russian ballistic missiles is its six or so US-made Patriot batteries; for Russia, the main defense against the coming Ukrainian ballistics will be the roughly 50 S-400 batteries.

Keenly aware of the deep strike dynamics, the Russians are pivoting away from easy-to-kill drones toward hard-to-kill ballistics. This is a serious problem for Ukrainian air defenses, which are desperately short of missiles for their Patriot batteries owing to the Americans’ reluctance to sell or donate missiles. US forces are struggling with their own air defense shortfalls resulting from the on-again, off-again war with Iran.

In one wave of Russian attacks on July 6, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 326 out of 351 incoming Geran drones and 37 of 39 incoming subsonic cruise missiles. But the Russians also launched six supersonic anti-ship missiles and 23 ballistic missiles. Every single one got through, wreaking havoc across Kyiv. At least 22 people died in the capital and the surrounding oblast, and 90 more were injured.

Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.