Panicking Ukrainian Territorials Fled Their HQ. Then The Russians Shattered The Southern Front Line.

Ukrainian commanders neglected the defense of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Now the town has fallen … and the chaos has just begun.

106th Territorial Defense Brigade photo

• Ukrainian commanders concentrated their forces in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts

• That left Zaporizhzhia Oblast under-manned—and vulnerable to Russian attack

• Abruptly just before Christmas, a Russian brigade captured Huliaipole, a critical strongpoint in Zaporizhzhia

• Now Ukrainian defenses in the oblast are in disarray

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Struggling to mobilize enough fresh manpower to fully replace its losses along the front line, the Ukrainian military now has precious few reserves. And that means commanders must make hard choices about where to attack, where to defend ... and where to hope the Russians don’t exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines.

It’s now evident that, in recent months, the Ukrainian brass chose to attack in Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast, defend around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast in the east ... and accept a high degree of risk around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the southeast.

But hope isn’t much of a strategy. Sensing weakness, the powerful Russian Dnipro Group of Forces moved aggressively against Huliaipole, a critical strongpoint for the defense of Zaporizhzhia city, 80 km to the west. Abruptly just before Christmas, the Russian 57th Motor Rifle Brigade captured the town.

Huliaipole was the largest and most fortified Ukrainian stronghold in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast—a town that had long remained impregnable while Russian forces battered themselves against its defenses from multiple directions.

Its fall—chaotic, with at least two top officers killed or captured, a command post abandoned with equipment still inside—wasn’t a sudden collapse. It was the predictable result of defending with a few territorial battalions what needed a full brigade. Russia still recruits over 30,000 soldiers monthly. Ukraine doesn’t. The 80-km path to Zaporizhzhia city and its 700,000 residents is now open.

Now Ukrainian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are in disarray. And it’s unclear whether, or how, the Ukrainian 17th Army Corps can prevent further Russian gains—and stave off a direct threat to Zaporizhzhia city and its approximately 700,000 residents.

The sparse Ukrainian forces defending the 15-km sector between Huliaipole in the south and Dobropillia in the north—mostly, a clutch of under-manned and poorly equipped units including the 102nd and 106th Territorial Defense Forces brigades—struggled for months to defend the two settlements and the road threading between them.

As the Russians consolidated their control over Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and fell back in Kupiansk, the Ukrainian command was able to chop additional forces to the Dobropillia-Huliaipole sector, including several elite assault regiments and brigades. But it was too little, too late.

Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.