Reinforce Pokrovsk Or Let It Fall: Ukraine's Agonizing Dilemma
Russian troops outnumber Ukrainian troops five to one in some key sectors, which forces Ukrainian commanders to make very hard decisions.
Ukrainian forces are losing Pokrovsk but winning the battle north of the city
The 1st Azov Corps is mopping up Russian troops north of Pokrovsk and may soon redeploy elsewhere
It’s probably too late to save Pokrovsk, but Ukrainian troops defending Huliaipole in the south badly need reinforcements
Every deployment decision is painful for Ukrainian commanders facing a 5-to-1 troop disadvantage
Ukrainian victories north of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast could free up hundreds if not thousands of troops who are badly needed elsewhere. It may be too late to save any part of Pokrovsk or neighboring Myrnohrad, but Ukrainian brigades fighting farther south are desperate for reinforcements, too.
Counterattacks by the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps since mid-August have steadily reduced a 40-square-kilometer salient that the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade had carved out of the front line north of Pokrovsk a few weeks earlier. The salient bent toward the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride one of the main supply lines into Pokrovsk.
Liberating the village of Kucheriv Yar late last month and defending the nearby village of Shakhove from repeated Russian mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces have the momentum in the salient battle. Now they’re killing, capturing or forcing out the last few Russians.
The armed forces of Ukraine “are continuing to mop-up the Dobropillia salient, successfully recapturing several positions around the village of Shakhove,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team reported last week. “These successes may allow Ukrainian reserves to be redeployed from this sector to strengthen the Pokrovsk direction.”
In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a “counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves,” according to military theorist Delwin. The Russians devoted just enough troops and vehicles to the salient battle to keep the 1st Azov Corps fixated on fighting north of Pokrovsk—so the corps wouldn’t shift its attention to Pokrovsk proper.
The problem, however, is that the Russians have the momentum in Pokrovsk—and it may be impossible for the Ukrainians, outnumbered five to one, to seize it from them. “Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded Tuesday.
The Russians succeeded in infiltrating Pokrovsk following a brutal yearlong siege in part because the salient battle drew the 1st Azov Corps into fighting north of Pokrovsk—keeping it from fighting in Pokrovsk, which was garrisoned by two exhausted Ukrainian units. The 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade began retreating north in late October.
Now that the 1st Azov Corps is on the verge of winning the salient fight, it’s probably too late to do much for Pokrovsk. A few elite Ukrainian units, including one commando team that helicoptered into the city on Oct. 29, are clinging to fighting positions on the northern edge of Pokrovsk, holding open a narrow escape route for any Ukrainian troops still attempting to flee that city or neighboring Myrnohrad.
Pokrovsk, a once-thriving mining city of 60,000 people, is almost certainly lost—as is smaller Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian forces romping to victory in the disappearing Dobropillia salient may end up staying in the area, buttressing a new defensive line north of Pokrovsk.
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