Russian Forces Are Losing Ground In Ukraine
That could change if and when the Russians finally launch their 2026 offensive
This story was commissioned by Euromaidan Press. Since Substack pays only around a fifth of my bills, I have no choice but to take on a lot of freelance work. I still want my Substack audience to know where to read those freelance stories, however. Hence this excerpt.
Russian troops in Ukraine fell back for the second month in a row in April, giving up an estimated 46 square kilometers of occupied territory last month after losing 13 square kilometers in March, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C.
In the spring of 2025, the Russians steadily advanced at a pace of around 40 square kilometers a month. This year’s Russian retreat means something has changed. By now it’s worth asking if Russia’s usual spring offensive has been delayed … or even defeated.
One mapper and analyst senses delay, for now. But delay that could foretell a longer-term loss of momentum for the Russians. Another mapper and analyst warns against complacency on the Ukrainian side. In the air if not on the ground, the Russians are far from giving up.
“It seems the Russian offensive has been postponed, if there will be one at all,” Ukrainian mapper Vitaly wrote. According to Vitaly, the Russians’ main problem all along the 1,200-km front line is “manpower supply.”
Yes, the Russian force in Ukraine still numbers more than 700,000 troops, the same overall strength as last year—and enough to lend Russian regiments a significant manpower advantage in the most important sectors. And yes, the Kremlin is still recruiting more than 20,000 fresh troops every month through generous, but potentially unsustainable, cash bonuses.
But escalating Ukrainian drone strikes are killing at least as many Russians as the Kremlin recruits every month, intensifying the strain on an occupying force that has been struggling to mass enough troops in the right sectors to sustain an offensive despite heavy losses.
Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.