Russian Forces Lost Ground In Ukraine In June

This despite capturing Kostiantynivka

18th Sloviansk Brigade photo

This story was commissioned by Euromaidan Press. Since Substack pays only around a fifth of my bills, I have no choice but to take on a lot of freelance work. I still want my Substack audience to know where to read those freelance stories, however. Hence this excerpt.

Russian forces fell back in June.

Yes, the Russians drove deep into the city of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, their biggest gain of the year. Russian forces are “beginning to take control of several districts in eastern Kostiantynivka,” logging Moscow’s “first strategic victory of the year,” according to mapper and analyst Clément Molin—though fighting is sure to continue.

But in other key sectors south and north of Kostiantynivka, the Russians lost ground. Russia advanced into some 30 sq km across the front in June, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. calculated—but once Ukrainian counterattacks are subtracted, the month came out negative. Russian forces ended June with a net loss of around 40 sq km of Ukrainian soil, according to analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting.

The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState framed the same trend a different way. Russia’s occupied area grew by 84 sq km in June, the group assessed—but set against what Ukrainian forces clawed back over the month, the balance tipped negative for the Russians.

“In May, we took two steps forward. In June, it’s one step forward and one step back,” DeepState wrote. Russian assault actions actually rose 4.4% over the month, the group noted, even as those assaults bought less ground. The Russians did log gains in the second half of June around Kostiantynivka, Dobropillia and Huliaipole.

The reasons are myriad. Ukrainian drones are better and more numerous than ever. Ukrainian fortifications are deeper and denser than ever. And Ukrainian forces are hitting Russian logistics in the middle zone between the disputed gray zone and Russia proper with greater intensity than ever, weakening Russian regiments before they can even organize an assault.

Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.