Russia's Backfire Bombers Are Massing Closer To Ukraine
The swing-wing bombers have been mostly out of action for a year
Russia’s Tu-22M bombers haven’t been a serious threat to Ukraine for a year
That may change soon as the bombers move closer to the Ukrainian border
There are signs Russia is rebuilding the battered Tu-22M fleet with refurbished airframes
The Russian air force’s Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire bombers have been mostly idle for a long time. But that may be changing. They could pose a new threat to Ukraine as the winter deepens and Ukrainian air defenses struggle to defeat increasingly powerful Russian air raids targeting Ukrainian cities and electrical infrastructure.
In an unusual move around 25 November, the Russian redeployed 16 of the twin-jet, swing-wing from Belaya air base in Siberia to Olenegorsk in northern Russia.
The move brought the supersonic bombers much closer to Ukraine. Belaya is 4,500 km from Ukraine; Olenegorsk is 1,600 km away. The Tu-22M’s main missile, the Kh-22, ranges around 600 km with a 1,000-kg warhead.
Shortly after arriving at Olenegorsk, three of the Backfires carried Kh-22s on a sortie in international airspace over the Baltic Sea. The clear intention: to probe NATO air defenses. A Swedish air force Gripen fighter intercepted and shadowed one of the bombers without further incident.
Early in Russia’s 45-month wider war on Ukraine, the Tu-22Ms routinely participated in Russia’s complex air raids targeting Ukrainian cities. But the pace of the Backfire raids slowed in 2024, possibly indicating the Russians were running low on the 6-ton, acid-fueled Kh-22s.
The Russian air force’s propeller-driven Tupolev Tu-95s took over. The roughly four dozen quad-engine Tu-95s are now the Russian air force’s main manned strike assets for attacks on Ukrainian cities. Most of the roughly twice-a-week raids involve at least a few Tu-95s firing Kh-101 cruise missiles. The air force’s 16 Kh-101-armed Tu-160s have occasionally joined in, too.
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Closing or closer?
Good work