The Russian Air Force's Last Giant An-22 Airlifter Broke In Half In Mid-Air

The incident is indicative of deeper Russian dysfunction

• The crash of a Russian air force airlifter speaks to a wider problem

• Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russia can replace them

• The Russian air force is doomed to shrink as more planes get grounded ... or crash

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The Russian air force Antonov An-22 heavylift transport plane that broke in half and crashed near Ivanovo air base 250 km west of Moscow on 14 December may have been the last An-22 in Russian service.

The horrific crash, captured on video from the ground, underscores a growing problem for the Russian air force as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year: Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russian factories can replace them.

The Russian air arm is still much bigger than the Ukrainian air force and boasts capabilities the Ukrainian air arm lacks, such as heavy bombers and stealth fighters. But the Russian air force, or VKS, will almost certainly shrink, a lot—and not just because its aircraft are getting shot down by Ukrainian missiles and blown up on the ground by Ukrainian drones.

No, the Russian air force will shrink because many of its roughly 1,700 fixed-wing aircraft—fighters, attack jets, bombers, and transports—will simply wear out from overuse in the wider war.

“It wouldn’t shock me if by the time the war in Ukraine ends, between combat losses, wear/tear and aging of its already old aircraft fleet, [the] VKS might end up being down ~40% from its pre-war fleet of combat aircraft,” Czech analyst Jakub Janovsky predicted.

The four-engine, turboprop An-22 that crashed near Moscow, killing seven people, was around 50 years old, but continued in service a year past its anticipated retirement, likely owing to the demands of the Russian war effort. Russian transport aircraft shuttle troops and supplies around Russia and also deliver cruise missiles to Russian bomber bases shortly before those bombers strike Ukrainian cities.

The Fighterbomber Telegram channel claimed it was the last An-22 in air force use. The giant turboprop could haul 80,000 kg of cargo and land on rough airstrips.

An airlifter can safely fly for 50 years or even longer if it’s properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded. But it’s evident from the An-22’s mid-air disintegration that it wasn’t properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded.

The problem may be endemic across the Russian air force fleet. Maintenance isn’t keeping up with use as Russian planes relentlessly bombard Ukraine.

It’s a problem Defense News identified as early as March 2024. “The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the life span of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine,” the trade publication reported.

Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.