Ukraine Penetrates The Fog Of War
The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast; could Western armies adapt as quickly?
As the worst winter in many years settled across Ukraine late last year, the 600,000-strong Russian invasion force innovated to embrace the cold—and briefly gained a tactical edge all along the 700-mile front line.
The Ukrainians innovated right back, ultimately blunting that edge. That dance—measure versus countermeasure—should reassure friends of a free Ukraine that a much smaller country can continue to battle a much bigger invader as long as it can use advanced technology.
But the breakneck speed of the tactical and technological development cycle in Russia’s 47-month all-out war on Ukraine, which analysts estimate at just a few weeks, should also alarm Western powers. They’re simply not ready to match that. And it’s unclear what it would take to shake up the current lethargy.
In the months leading up to this winter, Russian regiments relentlessly attacked front-line cities across Eastern Ukraine. They did so mostly on foot, hoping that scattered infantry would be able to avoid the tiny explosive drones that were usually everywhere all the time, watching and waiting to strike.
For the Russians, that meant parking their armored vehicles. The shift to infantry-first tactics preserved precious armor, but it also limited how quickly and deeply Russian forces could advance after breaking through Ukrainian lines.
But as the temperature dropped, the Russians sensed an opportunity to restore mobility to the battlefield. They waited for the thick fog that frequently blankets Ukraine during the coldest winter months.
They had a plan. The fog could, according to analyst Michael Kofman with the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, DC, “significantly degrade” Ukraine’s drones, most of which still relied on optical—that is to say daylight—cameras. Fog could obscure Russian vehicles from overhead surveillance and attack, giving mechanized forces their first opportunity in a long time to break through.
And for a few weeks starting in October, it worked. Russian vehicles advanced. Most notably, in early November, Russian mechanized forces rolled out under thick fog and penetrated Ukrainian lines around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, accelerating the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the city.
But the Ukrainians adapted, and fast. That wouldn’t surprise Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the CNA think tank in Virginia. Surveying the tech landscape in Ukraine last summer, Bendett concluded the Ukrainians and Russians were developing new drones and defenses against drones on a cycle ranging from two weeks to three months.
Read the rest at Europe’s Edge.
The 2-3 week innovation cylce is wild compared to traditional defense procurement. What struck me most is how fog became a tactical variable—once weather was just sometihng armies endured, now it's actively exploited in the sensor-countermeasure loop. The Pokrovsk breakout shows Russia can still adapt doctrine when conditions shift, but the quick Ukrainian response (likely thermal/radar upgrades?) proves institutional learning speed matters more than raw resources.