Ukraine's Southeastern Counteroffensive Comes At A Cost—In The East
Kyiv shifted forces from the east in order to attack in the southeast
Ukraine is advancing in the southeast, but falling back in the east
It’s no coincidence that many elite Ukrainian forces recently rushed south to join a new counteroffensive
It’s a conscious tradeoff by Kyiv—to safeguard Zaporizhzhia City in the south even if it means losing a little ground in Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian forces are advancing in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the southeast. And they seem to have accepted that the southeastern advances come at a cost farther north in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians are advancing.
The tradeoff makes sense, however. In counterattacking in the southeast, the Ukrainians are taking pressure off Zaporizhzhia City, which came under renewed threat from the Russian Dnipro Group of Forces after the Russians captured the town of Huliaipole, a critical logistical node 80 km east of Zaporizhzhia, back in December.
By contrast, the gains the Russians have made in recent days in and around the neighboring cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, 100 km northeast of Huliaipole, merely consolidate Russian control over those cities—and don’t really help the Russians advance toward their ultimate objectives in Donetsk Oblast: the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 50 km to the northeast.
Russian forces’ path toward Zaporizhzhia was largely open and devoid of major fortifications. All the Russians’ paths toward Kramatorsk are, on the other hand, extremely well-fortified.
For that reason, Kyiv’s choice—to pay for counterattacks around Huliaipole by handing the Russians a few villages north of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—makes perfect sense.
The tradeoff was only possible because, two weeks ago, billionaire Elon Musk finally bricked Russia’s smuggled and stolen Starlink terminals, grounding many Russian drones and blinding many Russian headquarters.
