Ukraine’s Su-27 Fleet Is Vanishing—And No One Can Save It
19 Su-27s down, no allies to send more
19 Su-27s lost since February 2022—Ukraine may have only 12 to 23 left in service
No replacement source exists—unlike MiG-29s or F-16s, no allied nation operates Su-27s
Attrition rate of 4 to 5 jets per year could force brigade consolidation within two years
Stored airframes likely unrecoverable—decades of open storage caused unfixable corrosion
F-16s and Mirages must fill the gap until Gripens and Rafales arrive in coming years
Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighter over eastern Ukraine on 8 December, the Ukrainian air force reported. The pilot, Lt. Col. Yevhenii Ivanov, died in the shoot-down.
The loss—Ukraine’s 19th Su-27 since Russia’s full-scale invasion—accelerates an irreversible countdown. Unlike MiG-29s, F-16s or Mirages, no ally has Su-27s to donate. Ukraine’s most capable Soviet-era interceptor is bleeding out with no transfusion available.
Fast, maneuverable, and versatile, the Su-27 interceptor is one of Ukraine’s most useful warplanes. But it’s also the most endangered fighter in Ukrainian service.
That’s because Ukraine’s potential stock of grounded but recoverable Su-27s is smaller than its stock of old, but fairly intact, Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters. And while there are still a few soon-to-be-surplus MiG-29s sitting in shelters across Europe, none of Ukraine’s foreign allies have Su-27s they could donate to the war effort.
Of Ukraine’s four fighter types, the Su-27 is the likeliest to disappear as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year.
Ukraine inherited 74 then-new Su-27s when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Twenty-three years later, as few as 24 were in active service.
The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 motivated Kyiv to expand the Su-27 fleet. It’s possible as many as three dozen unflyable airframes were in storage at the time. By 2016, at least one analyst had counted 57 Ukrainian Su-27s with confirmable “bort” numbers painted on their noses.
If all the identifiable airframes were in reasonably good condition, Kyiv could’ve—with great effort—restored every single available airframe and grown the fleet to nearly 60 jets. In practice, it’s unlikely all the airframes were recoverable after many years, or even decades, in open storage.
On Feb. 25, 2022, a Su-27 exploded while patrolling over Kyiv. It was the first wartime Su-27 loss for Ukraine. In the following 44 months, another 18 of the Sukhois were lost: crashed, shot down or destroyed on the ground by Russian bombardment.
Each loss nudged the Ukrainian Su-27 fleet closer to zero.
Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.
