Ukrainian Cruise Missiles Blew Up A Critical Factory. After That, The Russians Began Running Out Of Drones.
The destruction of the VNIIR-Progress plant depressed monthly Shahed launches by thousands of drones.
If trends hold, Russian forces are on track to launch around 6,000 Shahed one-way attack drones at Ukrainian cities in June, according to analyst Vitaly. (Observe a Ukrainian drone strike on a Shahed launch truck, above.)
Ukrainian air-defenses typically shoot down 90% of incoming Shaheds, but the 600 that should get through still amount to … a lot of drones. Each packs a 200-pound warhead.
But 6,000 drones is actually good news. Because in May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 Shaheds. And in both March and April they launched 6,500. One month doesn’t make a trend. But two just might. If Shahed launches are down in July, too, we may be able to look back at June as a turning point.
It’s obvious what happened, because it’s happened before. Ukraine’s own deep strike munitions—one-way attack drones and cruise missiles—are pummeling the industries supporting Shahed production in Russia.
Most critically, on June 10, Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the VNIIR-Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, in western Russia 550 miles from the front line in Ukraine.
Two of the six-ton missiles blasted the plant with their 2,500-pound warheads, punching right through anti-drone protections and inflicting major blast and fire damage that was apparent in photos and videos from the following days.
