Ukrainian Troops March On Komar

Local counterattacks are erasing Russia's overall territorial gains

80th Air Assault Brigade photo

This story was commissioned by Euromaidan Press. Since Substack pays only around a fifth of my bills, I have no choice but to take on a lot of freelance work. I still want my Substack audience to know where to read those freelance stories, however. Hence this excerpt.

The town of Velyka Novosilka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, is a major hub for supplies flowing east to west to Russian forces fighting in southeastern Ukraine. The village of Komar, 14 km to the north, anchors Russian defenses along the road threading south toward Velyka Novosilka.

All that is to say, if Ukrainian forces can capture Komar, they can squeeze the supply lines through Velyka Novosilka, and by extension squeeze Russian regiments and brigades all along the southeastern front line.

And that’s why, for months now, Ukrainian forces have been quietly probing for gaps in Russian defenses around Komar. Borrowing infiltration tactics from the Russians, the Ukrainians have been slipping forces across the wide, disputed gray zone, aiming to consolidate enough troops in key positions to nudge the gray zone far enough to the southeast to put Komar in play.

That won’t win the wider war, however. Russia might be losing. But it hasn’t lost.

The problem for the Ukrainians in the sector near Komar is the Mokri Yaly River, which flows around Komar and forms a natural barrier. The Ukrainians have succeeded in expanding the gray zone, but they haven’t succeeded in capturing Komar. Yet. “For now, Komar is 100% Russian controlled,” mapper Clément Molin noted.

But that doesn’t mean the Russians are winning this battle, or the Ukrainians are losing it. In months of hard fighting, a mix of Ukrainian mechanized, air assault and marine brigades have crossed the Vovcha River, 13 km north of Komar and the Mokri Yaly River, and extended the zone of clear Ukrainian control in the direction of Komar and Velyka Novosilka.

That is to say, the Ukrainians have the momentum in the fight over supply lines in the southeast. It’s just one of several axes where Ukrainian forces have the edge on the ground. Russian forces have the edge along other axes, but if you’re wondering why overall monthly Russian gains have decreased to nearly zero in recent months, it’s because of battles like that for Komar.

Yes, the Russians are marching through the ruins of Kostiantynivka, 90 km to the northeast, but the Ukrainians are successfully counterattacking elsewhere, resulting in a near zeroing out of Russian advances as the wider war grinds through its 53rd month.

How the Ukrainians have managed to turn the tables on the Russians in certain sectors is no secret. Ukraine has the advantage in the air over the gray zone and also over the logistical zone stretching 200 km behind the gray zone.

Ukrainian drones are hounding Russian supply convoys, throttling the flow of supplies to front-line units and weakening them before they can even being organizing an attack or defense.

Meanwhile, Russia’s own drones sometimes struggle to even take flight owing to gaps in Russian command and control resulting from billionaire Elon Musk’s war-changing decision, back in February, to throttle Russia’s thousands of smuggled and stolen Starlink satellite terminals.

Read the rest at Euromaidan Press.