Winter Fog Fell On Kostiantynivka. That's When The Russians Came.
Another front-line city is in danger of encirclement.
Kostiantynivka is a critical link in a chain of Ukrainian fortifications in Donetsk Oblast
But the city’s garrison relies on one main road for the bulk of its supplies
Using winter fog and rain for cover, Russian forces massing southwest of Kostiantynivka could advance toward the road
If the Russians cut across the road, Kostiantynivka’s fate could be sealed
Kostiantynivka is the southernmost urban strongpoint in a chain of strongpoints stretching 60 km toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. The city with a pre-war population of 67,000 has also functioned as a staging base for Ukrainian troops defending Chasiv Yar and other nearby settlements.
But Kostiantynivka is in trouble. Fog and rain that blanketed the city on Jan. 31 grounded Ukrainian drones, handing the Russian Center Group of Forces a perfect opportunity to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostiantynivka.
Whether any Russian managed to advance under the cover of bad weather isn’t yet clear, although early signs are ominous. If not now, the Russian advance is surely coming. Observers have warned for weeks that Kostiantynivka is exposed.
Kostiantynivka itself is heavily defended by the 36th Marine Brigade and 28th and 100th Mechanized Brigades. Moreover, “the city is packed full of strongpoints everywhere,” mapper and analyst Playfra observed. The strongpoints include a large concentration of tall buildings that can function as fighting positions.
But there are too few Ukrainian troops to cover every possible route around the city. If the Russians can partially surround Kostiantynivka, they may be able to sever the main supply line into the city: the H20 highway. Cutting across the highway could begin the slow but inexorable strangulation of the Ukrainian garrison.
