Yes, Russian Tank Production Is Collapsing

Old tanks are running out—and new ones are too hard to build

A ‘new’ T-90M at Uralvagonzavod. Russian state media photo

Russia may be building a lot fewer new tanks than many observers expected.

A sharp-eyed observer, scrutinizing official photos of the T-90M production line at the Uralvagonzavod tank factory, in Sverdlovsk Oblast in west-central Russia, noticed something peculiar. A thin metal plate near the driver’s hatch on the 51-ton, three-person T-90M.

That tiny detail told analyst “-T-90K” that the hull for at least some T-90Ms in production at Uralvagonzavod last year weren’t newly built on the basis of the original “vanilla” T-90 hull design from 1992. Instead, they were recycled from 20-year-old T-90As.

“How do you differentiate a T-90 and T-90A hull?” T-90K asked. “Via the reinforcements on other side of the driver’s port.”

T-90K’s realization, which confirms suspicions from several other analysts, has profound implications for the Russian armed forces. Uralvagonzavod is building “new” T-90Ms on the hulls of “old” T-90As—by installing a new turret with upgraded optics and fire controls.

Updating old hulls is much, much easier than building them new. The hulls require precision welding that itself depends on a skilled workforce. Foreign sanctions and the war’s insatiable demand for able-bodied men have, combined, eroded Uralvagonzavod’s production capacity.